A thousand days into Europe\u2019s most grueling war since the Nazis, the starting gun appears to have been fired for peace talks in Ukraine. <\/p>\n
Friday\u2019s unilateral move by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to call Russian President Vladimir Putin ended nearly two years of major NATO leaders isolating the Kremlin head. <\/p>\n
It was unmitigated bad news for Ukraine\u2019s President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a 72-hour period marked by the White House finally acceding to his request to be able to fire long-range American ATACMs weapons into Russia. Zelensky fumed that the call had opened \u201cPandora\u2019s Box.\u201d He said: \u201cIt is extremely impo\ufeffrtant for (Putin) to weaken his isolation.\u201d <\/p>\n
Hours later, Zelensky seemed to acknowledge momentum toward talks, saying when US President-elect Donald Trump takes power \u201cwar will end sooner,\u201d as this was the promise Trump had made to his voters. <\/p>\n
Scholz said his call with Putin revealed the Russian leader\u2019s hardline positions on Ukraine had not changed but added it was important for Europe to talk to Putin, if Trump was about to do the same. <\/p>\n
The hour-long conversation marked the return of diplomacy to the decade-long conflict, even if their talk brought the familiar refrain it was not yet time to talk. <\/p>\n
One Western official said there was an \u201coverall collective holding of breath\u201d in Western capitals ahead of Trump\u2019s inauguration. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe Germans speaking to Putin \u2013 that will have gone down badly\u201d among Ukraine\u2019s allies, the official said. \u201cGiving Putin that positive bounce will have irked the French and others.\u201d French President Emmanuel Macron has been particularly vocal about continuing support for Ukraine. <\/p>\n
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk posted on X that Sunday night\u2019s substantial Russian missile assault on Ukraine showed that: \u201cNo-one will stop Putin with phone calls \u2026 telephone diplomacy cannot replace real support from the whole West for Ukraine. The next weeks will be decisive, not only for the war itself, but also for our future.\u201d <\/p>\n
The Biden administration\u2019s decision to permit ATACMs missiles to be fired at Russian territory is perhaps a reflection of the growing sense of escalation in the war, even as possible peace talks loom into view, as all sides seek to improve their position ahead of a Trump presidency. <\/p>\n
Analysts said Scholz\u2019s outreach was fueled by imminent German elections. <\/p>\n
\u201cScholz is entering the election campaign as a \u2018peacemaker\u2019 to secure votes that might be otherwise drawn to the pro-Moscow bent of some German opposition,\u201d said Alena Epifanova, a research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations. <\/p>\n
Epifanova said the move might appeal to similar sympathies in Scholz\u2019s own SPD party, but \u201cotherwise it\u2019s very unfortunate for Ukraine.\u201d <\/p>\n
A diplomat familiar with the mood inside NATO headquarters described uncertainty in the alliance as to where Trump would fall on continued support and peace negotiations, describing the next few months ahead as critical on the battlefield in Ukraine. <\/p>\n
Most analysts speculate any deal would involve an approximate freezing of the front lines, with Moscow and Kyiv making or receiving security guarantees to prevent the conflict reigniting. Russia continues to make small yet consistent gains on the eastern front line, and would swallow about a fifth of Ukraine were the front lines negotiated into new permanent borders. Kremlin critics also warn of its history of using diplomacy as a pause or foil to pursuing its military goals. <\/p>\n
A French defense official said: \u201cDiscussions surrounding the future of Ukraine have gone into overdrive\u201d since Trump\u2019s election, at the heart of which were security guarantees for Ukraine. <\/p>\n
\u201cWhat kind of concessions will Russia agree to?\u201d the official asked. \u201cDoes Russia keep all the areas it has seized? And, if we freeze the status quo, will the war really be over? Can there be peace? Or will we see acts of sabotage and subversion?\u201d <\/p>\n
Pledges from the Biden administration and Europe have boosted assistance to Kyiv in the past weeks, aimed at indicating Kyiv\u2019s support is assured for months to come. <\/p>\n
A second Western official said a recent G7 agreement to loan $50 billion to Ukraine, based on the profits from frozen Russian assets, \u201cmeans that essentially Ukraine is financially secure all 2025.\u201d <\/p>\n
The details of any Trump peace plan remain unclear, some analysts suggest, as the president-elect has yet to formulate a strategy, or decide on personnel who can. He famously said he could bring the war to an end in a day without saying how he would achieve that. <\/p>\n
His incoming national security adviser, Mike Waltz, has said almost nothing on policy since accepting the job, but wrote three days before the election in The Economist that fighting \u201c\u2018as long as it takes\u2019 in a war of attrition against a larger power is a recipe for failure.\u201d <\/p>\n
Allies have struggled to read limited signals from the incoming White House. A European diplomat said: \u201cWe take (Trump) at his word that he\u2019ll move to a negotiated settlement,\u201d adding the Trump camp had been guarded when discussing their policy, listening but revealing little, and \u201cnot saying \u2018here\u2019s the plan.\u2019\u201d <\/p>\n
Trump supporters have, in part, sought to dispel the idea the president-elect would seek peace at any cost to Kyiv. <\/p>\n
Kurt Volker, Trump\u2019s Ukraine envoy in his first term from 2017 to 2019, said Trump\u2019s opening move must be to \u201cdemonstrate strength\u201d so Putin realizes it\u2019s not worth continuing to fight, \u201cthen you can figure out the details from there. Trump has said many times: \u2018peace through strength.\u2019\u201d <\/p>\n
Volker said he thought Trump would issue loans rather than more aid to Ukraine. <\/p>\n
\u201cI am not convinced he\u2019s going to cut (it) to zero. I believe it\u2019s going to be a lend-lease program,\u201d which Volker said would garner wide Republican support, referencing a World War Two era program under which US-made materiel was effectively loaned to Allies but not returned. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt doesn\u2019t cost the taxpayer \u2026 \u2018Borrow as much money as you need, build up your military, be strong, but you should end the war.\u2019\u201d <\/p>\n
Volker said he felt Trump would be influenced by the US \u201ccatastrophe\u201d in Afghanistan under Biden. <\/p>\n
Trump \u201cwanted to get out of Afghanistan himself, but he never did because he was always told this is what would happen,\u201d Volker said. <\/p>\n
\u201cHe doesn\u2019t want to have that kind of catastrophe on his watch. He\u2019s going to try to find a way to end the war, but Ukraine survives.\u201d <\/p>\n
The appointment of Waltz as national security adviser and nomination of Sen. Marco Rubio to secretary of state \u2013 both China hawks \u2013 may increase focus on the introduction of North Korean troops and weaponry by Moscow to the front line, Western officials suggested. <\/p>\n
The move may backfire for Putin, they said, turning the Ukrainian front line into a more global arena, where the United States must now face down Indo-Pacific foes like Kim Jong Un, and his occasional sponsor Beijing. <\/p>\n
A former US diplomat familiar with Trump\u2019s approach explained the president-elect\u2019s controversially friendly attitude toward the Kremlin head stemmed from Trump not wanting to \u201cdemonize adversaries or people he has to cut deals with.\u201d <\/p>\n
They added: \u201cHe\u2019ll take policy decisions that are tough, or allow others to do that,\u201d but wants to \u201chave a relationship.\u201d <\/p>\n
The former diplomat said Moscow\u2019s deceptive history in negotiations was why Kyiv must be properly armed as part of any settlement. \u201cPutin won\u2019t be sincere \u2013 let\u2019s be clear,\u201d the diplomat said. <\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s going to ask for things that are unreasonable. And then even if he agrees to a ceasefire, he\u2019s going to still then plan on attacking again later.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A thousand days into Europe\u2019s most grueling war since the Nazis, the starting gun appears to have been fired for peace talks in Ukraine. Friday\u2019s unilateral move by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to call Russian President Vladimir Putin ended nearly two years of major NATO leaders isolating the Kremlin head. It was unmitigated bad news <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10038,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-10037","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10037"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10037\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10038"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}