Russia\u2019s use of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile on Thursday is the latest escalation in the Ukraine war. <\/p>\n
It also marks a decisive, and potentially dangerous moment in Moscow\u2019s conflict with the West. <\/p>\n
The use of what Vladimir Putin said was a ballistic missile with multiple warheads in offensive combat is a clear departure from decades of the Cold War doctrine of deterrence. <\/p>\n
Ballistic missiles with multiple warheads, known as \u201cmultiple independently targeted reentry vehicles,\u201d or MIRVs, have never been used to strike an enemy, experts say. <\/p>\n
\u201cTo my knowledge, yes, it\u2019s the first time MIRV has been used in combat,\u201d Hans Kristensen, the director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said. <\/p>\n
Ballistic missiles have been the underpinning of deterrence, offering what is known as \u201cmutual assured destruction,\u201d or MAD, in the nuclear age. <\/p>\n
The thinking is, if even a few missiles survive a nuclear first strike, there will be enough firepower left in the opponent\u2019s arsenal to wipe out several major cities of the aggressor, therefore ensuring neither side is unable to escape the consequences of nuclear actions. <\/p>\n
In that vein, ballistic missiles were designed to stand sentinel over a future where nuclear arms would never again be fired in anger. <\/p>\n
But analysts, including Kristensen, argue that MIRVed missiles may invite, rather than deter, a first strike. <\/p>\n
The highly destructive capacity of MIRVs means that they are both potential first-strike weapons and first-strike targets, Kristensen and colleague Matt Korda at the Federation of American Scientists wrote in a study published in March. <\/p>\n
That\u2019s because, it\u2019s easier to destroy multiple warheads before they are launched, than try to shoot them down as they are dropping at hypersonic speed on their targets. <\/p>\n
And according to a recent posting from the Union of Concerned Scientists, a US-based nonprofit science advocacy organization, this creates a \u201cuse them or lose them\u201d type scenario \u2014 an incentive to strike first in a time of crisis. \u201cOtherwise, a first strike attack that destroyed a country\u2019s MIRVed missiles would disproportionately damage that country\u2019s ability to retaliate,\u201d said the posting. <\/p>\n
Videos of Thursday\u2019s Russian strike showed the multiple warheads falling at different angles on the target, and each warhead would need to be defeated with an anti-missile rocket, a daunting prospect even for the best air defense systems. <\/p>\n
And while the warheads dropped on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday were not nuclear, their use in conventional combat operations is certain to raise new uncertainty in a world already on edge. <\/p>\n
Importantly, Russia alerted the United States to the use of the missile fired Thursday beforehand. But even with that advanced warning, any further launches by Putin\u2019s regime will now inevitably ratchet up fears across Europe, with many asking the question: Has deterrence just died? <\/p>\n
It is not only Russia and the United States that have MIRV technology. China has it on its intercontinental ballistic missiles, according to the Center for Arms Control and Non-proliferation, and the United Kingdom and France, along with Russia and the US, have long had MIRV technology on their submarine-launched ballistic missiles. <\/p>\n
And there are new players in the MIRV game, too. Pakistan reportedly tested a missile with multiple warheads in 2017, and earlier this year India said it had successfully tested a MIRVed ICBM. <\/p>\n
Analysts worry about land-based MIRVs more than those on subs. That\u2019s because subs are stealthy and hard to detect. Land-based missiles, especially those in stationary silos, are more easily found and therefore are more tempting targets. <\/p>\n
In their March report, Kristensen and Korda wrote about the perils of the expanding MIRV club, calling it \u201ca sign of a larger worrisome trend in worldwide nuclear arsenals\u201d and an \u201cemerging nuclear arms race.\u201d <\/p>\n
India proclaimed MIRV success during a test the same month was just one warning sign, they wrote. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt follows China\u2019s deployment of MIRVs on some of its DF-5 ICBMs, Pakistan\u2019s apparent pursuit of MIRVs for its Ababeel medium-range missile, North Korea may also be pursuing MIRV technology, and the United Kingdom has decided to increase its nuclear stockpile to enable it to deploy more warheads on its submarine-launched missiles,\u201d Kristensen and Korda wrote. <\/p>\n
They argue that more MIRV warheads in a range of county\u2019s arsenals \u201cwould dramatically reduce crisis stability by incentivizing leaders to launch their nuclear weapons quickly in a crisis.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cA world in which nearly all nuclear-armed countries deploy significant MIRV capability looks far more dangerous than our current geostrategic environment,\u201d they said. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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