For two weeks, America\u2019s friends held their tongues. Since his inauguration President Donald Trump had enjoyed a steady stream of warm words \u2014 and very little criticism \u2014 from leaders in Europe and the Anglosphere who, privately, might bristle at the noise and bombast he brings to the White House. <\/p>\n
But that accord was never bound to last, and it shattered this week after Trump unleashed perhaps his most provocative foreign policy idea yet: taking Gaza under American control, relocating its Palestinian population, and redeveloping the enclave into the \u201cRiviera of the Middle East.\u201d <\/p>\n
The suggestion seemed to shred in an instant decades of Western policy-making, darting away from a \u201ctwo-state solution\u201d model that had been long-established, if glaringly elusive in terms of progress. <\/p>\n
Nations rushed to reject it. America\u2019s allies in the region reacted with disbelief and concern about the impact the call would have on live diplomatic efforts, particularly the ongoing ceasefire and hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Palestinians have expressed dismay at the prospect of leaving their homeland. <\/p>\n
In Europe, where the United States usually enjoys less complicated relationships, leaders varied in tone but were clear in their stance: They do not support this. <\/p>\n
Still, Trump has left America\u2019s partners in a difficult spot. Criticizing the US is a last resort for many leaders \u2013 doing it so early in a presidential term is fraught with downsides. <\/p>\n
\u201cMy read is that they\u2019re all gobsmacked. They didn\u2019t see it coming,\u201d Jon B. Alterman said of America\u2019s allies. Alterman, a former US State Department official, is now the director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. <\/p>\n
There are wider, more diffuse reverberations too. Trump\u2019s history of haphazard geopolitical interventions has already threatened to ideologically isolate the United States, bit by bit, among its global allies. His remarks on Gaza \u2013 whether they represent an idea, a plan, or something inbetween \u2013 may accelerate that process. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis administration has not only an instinct but an appetite to be disruptive,\u201d Alterman said. He predicted \u201ca much deeper soul-searching in Europe, about how it wants to engage with a United States that is much more self-absorbed, and much less committed to supporting a multilateral system.\u201d <\/p>\n
Most Western nations are cautious of the unpredictability Trump brings to the White House, but they were more prepared for his second election win than his first. <\/p>\n
They expected a test like this. And their responses to Trump\u2019s Gaza plan highlighted how they might more broadly tackle Trump 2.0. <\/p>\n
The United Nations was robust, its secretary-general warning Trump against \u201cethnic cleansing.\u201d France said the proposal would constitute \u201ca serious violation of international law.\u201d (The forced removal of a population is prohibited by the Geneva Convention.) Spain\u2019s foreign minister told radio station RNE that \u201cGazans\u2019 land is Gaza.\u201d In Western Europe, only Dutch far-right figurehead Geert Wilders broke ranks to endorse the plan. \u201cLet Palestinians move to Jordan. Gaza-problem solved!\u201d he wrote on X. <\/p>\n
German President Walter Steinmeier said the suggestion was \u201cunacceptable,\u201d and the country\u2019s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, said it would \u201clead to new suffering and new hatred.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cIn Germany, the government reaction is as expected: they\u2019re very dismissive,\u201d he noted. An upcoming federal election has increased the incentive for the beleaguered German government to condemn Trump, who is widely unpopular in the country and across Western Europe. <\/p>\n
It is a dynamic Trump\u2019s team will be relaxed about. \u201cThey\u2019re not going to expect Western capitals to break out in a chorus of \u2018me too, sign us up!\u2019,\u201d said Nathan Sales, Trump\u2019s former Coordinator for Counterterrorism. \u201cWe don\u2019t have to agree with our friends 100% of the time.\u201d <\/p>\n
Besides, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his government have little incentive to hold back: they likely won\u2019t be in power next month to clear up the mess. <\/p>\n
But criticizing the US president is not easy for everyone. <\/p>\n
Take Britain. America\u2019s steadfast ally is desperate for a productive relationship with Trump, and early signs indicate that a charm offensive from Prime Minister Keir Starmer is paying off. Trump said this week that Starmer had been \u201cvery nice,\u201d and hinted the United Kingdom could avoid the tariffs he has threatened for the European Union. That is a monumental carrot for a British leader looking everywhere for a kickstart to economic growth. <\/p>\n
Yet those bridges are built on sand. London is acutely aware that an ill-judged remark could upend months of work to appease Trump. At the same time, Starmer knows the pitfalls of appearing subservient to an American president; it\u2019s exactly what he once launched barbs at Conservative prime ministers for. <\/p>\n
That conundrum forces some delicate wordcraft. \u201cOn the issue of Gaza, Donald Trump is right,\u201d Starmer\u2019s Foreign Secretary David Lammy told reporters in Ukraine this week, reciting the part of his answer intended for an audience of one. \u201cLooking at those scenes, Palestinians who have been horrendously displaced over so many months of war, it is clear that Gaza is lying in rubble.\u201d The rest was meant for everyone else: \u201cWe have always been clear in our view that we must see two states and we must see Palestinians able to live and prosper in their homelands in Gaza.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cHard-balling allies is certainly an odd foreign policy approach,\u201d the lawmaker added of Trump. \u201cWill he do it with enemies?\u201d <\/p>\n
As with most of Trump\u2019s more provocative comments, his Gaza proposal was simultaneously derided and analyzed at home and abroad for hints of strategy. <\/p>\n
Those familiar with his thinking suggested that tossing out an unpalatable benchmark could \u2013 whether by design or not \u2013 create an urgency among America\u2019s allies to come up with something better. \u201cHe enjoys keeping people in reactive mode,\u201d Nelson said. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve seen this play from President Trump many times before \u2026 this is the art of the deal,\u201d Sales added. \u201cMost Western allies of the US are stuck in a rut when it comes to thinking about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict\u2026 in the first term, the Trump administration recognized that that path was a dead end.\u201d <\/p>\n
But if unlocking an intractable diplomatic stalemate was the plan, it comes with risks that America\u2019s allies will not welcome. \u201cSometimes when you unfreeze things, you can unleash forces that are much more negative than you can even begin to contemplate,\u201d Alterman said. <\/p>\n
Among them is an American isolation on global issues that would create a vacuum of international leadership. \u201cA number of countries are going to feel that they need a different relationship with Russia and China,\u201d Alterman warned. \u201cPartly so that they don\u2019t rely on the United States, (and) partly because they don\u2019t see the moral benefits of having a close relationship with the United States.\u201d <\/p>\n
That danger is heightened in the context of Trump\u2019s moves to sanction, exit or criticize international agencies, and to dismantle the US Agency for International Development (USAID). <\/p>\n
\u201cPeople are confusing USAID with a charity,\u201d Nelson said. \u201cAmericans are among the most charitable people in the world. But making strategic investments is an important way for us to support our friends and expand our influence.\u201d <\/p>\n
This won\u2019t be the last geopolitical rupture between Trump and Europe. Many are already eyeing possible negotiations to end Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine with interest; Trump has previously suggested ceding Ukrainian land to Moscow, and officials in NATO countries have long feared he may go public with a proposed arrangement that leaves Kyiv and European capitals scrambling. <\/p>\n
They will seek to diffuse those fears next week, when several members of Trump\u2019s inner circle \u2013 including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President JD Vance and Ukraine-Russia envoy Keith Kellogg \u2013 are expected to travel to the Munich Security Conference in Germany. <\/p>\n
\u201cI would hope that the administration would pursue a more balanced and calculated approach to Ukraine,\u201d Nelson said. \u201cOne hopes that Trump would be very much relying on expert advice\u201d on that conflict, he added. <\/p>\n
On more issues than one, Trump\u2019s global honeymoon appears to be over. And if Western countries needed a reminder of the tumult he can inject into global affairs, they have it. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe Biden administration tried very hard to be reliable and predictable\u201d on the world stage, Alterman said. \u201cThe Trump administration has exactly the opposite instinct.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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