As the war in Ukraine grinds toward its fourth year, US President Donald Trump has made clear which world leader he thinks can help America end the conflict: Vladimir Putin\u2019s ally Xi Jinping. <\/p>\n
\u201cHopefully, China can help us stop the war with, in particular, Russia-Ukraine \u2026 they have a great deal of power over that situation, and we\u2019ll work with them,\u201d Trump told political and business elites gathered at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland last month. <\/p>\n
Trump expressed that hope, he has repeatedly said, in a call with the Chinese leader days before being sworn in last month \u2013 and it\u2019s a subject that could be raised in the coming days as officials from around the world gather in Munich for an annual security conference. <\/p>\n
While Trump may have complicated his plan to orchestrate peace alongside Xi by imposing a blanket 10% tariff on Chinese imports into the United States earlier this month, the war in Ukraine could be a rare issue of collaboration \u2013 especially as Beijing looks to avert deepening trade frictions. <\/p>\n
\u201cGiven the stakes on US-China relations, if Trump prices China\u2019s cooperation as the one critical issue that could improve US-China relations, I think China will be very tempted \u2026 (and could) play a helpful role,\u201d said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington. At the same time, she added, Beijing will be wary of undermining its alignment with Russia. <\/p>\n
China has long sought to position itself as a potential peace broker in the conflict \u2013promoting its own vaguely-worded proposal to settle the war. But in the West, its bid has so far been overshadowed by another reality: Beijing\u2019s abiding support for Putin\u2019s Russia. <\/p>\n
The stakes would be high for Xi to risk damaging that partnership, which the Chinese leader has built up as a critical part of his broader goals to counter pressure from the West and reshape a world order in China\u2019s favor. <\/p>\n
And a negotiating table where Xi has a prominent seat is also one where Putin, not Trump, has a staunch partner \u2013 a reality that Washington would have to navigate carefully if it doesn\u2019t want to risk isolating European allies or reach a solution that\u2019s unacceptable to Ukraine, analysts say. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe real outcome that Beijing would like to avoid is a very much weakened Russia,\u201d said Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore. \u201cBecause then \u2026 (Beijing) would be lacking one major partner.\u201d <\/p>\n
The future of the conflict is expected to feature heavily on the agenda of the upcoming Munich Security Conference beginning Friday in Germany, where US Vice President JD Vance is set to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will also lead a delegation from Beijing. <\/p>\n
Looming over the gathering is a dramatic tone shift in Washington\u2019s approach to the war. Trump has questioned American aid to the embattled country, which his predecessor Joe Biden and US NATO allies have seen as critical to defending not just Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty and territorial integrity, but the rules-based world order. <\/p>\n
In a Fox News interview earlier this week, the notoriously transactional Trump instead suggested that the US should be getting access to Ukraine\u2019s rich natural resources in exchange for military assistance. He also suggested that Ukraine \u201cmay be Russian someday,\u201d and said his administration has made \u201ctremendous progress\u201d in laying the groundwork for potential peace talks with Russia and Ukraine, without providing details. <\/p>\n
Zelensky has said he is willing to negotiate with Putin \u2013 but only if the US and Europe continue to support Ukraine and \u201cprovide security guarantees,\u201d while Russia in recent days reiterated that it would only accept a peace that saw Ukraine give up ambitions to join NATO and cede regions annexed by Russia. <\/p>\n
But while Trump is pushing for a swift end to the war, his administration has yet to lay out specifics on what kind of peace terms they are hoping to see agreed upon. <\/p>\n
How much Trump would look to work alongside Xi \u2013 and whether the Chinese leader is amenable \u2013 may also depend to an extent on those parameters, observers say. Western leaders in the past have tried, without success, to persuade Xi to push Putin toward a peace in line with the one advocated for by Zelensky and Ukraine. <\/p>\n
Even as China has claimed neutrality in the conflict and called for peace, it\u2019s emerged as a key diplomatic and economic lifeline for Russia throughout the war, including by sending it dual-use goods NATO leaders have said are feeding Russia\u2019s defense sector and enabling its military. Beijing defends its trade as part of normal relations with Russia. <\/p>\n
It\u2019s likely that in Trump\u2019s eyes, all that gives Xi leverage over Putin. But close observers of China\u2019s foreign policy say it\u2019s not so straightforward. <\/p>\n
\u201cCan China threaten to cut off the supply (of essential goods to Russia)? It can\u2019t, because China cannot afford a completely failed Russia,\u201d said Liu Dongshu, an assistant professor focusing on Chinese politics at the City University of Hong Kong. He pointed to Beijing\u2019s calculus that its relations with the US and Europe have already soured to such an extent that they have no choice but to continue to back their only powerful diplomatic ally. <\/p>\n
Xi and Putin memorably declared their \u201cno limits\u201d partnership weeks before Russian tanks rolled over Ukraine\u2019s sovereign borders \u2013 a pledge made based on their shared opposition to NATO and a view that the US-led West is declining while they are on the rise. <\/p>\n
Xi also sees Putin as a potential source of economic and diplomatic support if Beijing were ever to invade Taiwan, some observers say. Xi\u2019s ambition to take control of the self-ruling democracy may be another key reason why he would be wary of any move that could harm that relationship. <\/p>\n
The Chinese leader may also be enjoying the war\u2019s role as a distraction for the US away from a focus on Asia and Taiwan \u2013 something the Trump\u2019s cohort, including Vice President Vance, have pointed out. <\/p>\n
As a US senator, Vance last year argued that the US supplying Ukraine with air defense systems could hurt its ability to aid Taiwan\u2019s defense if China were to attack the island that it claims as its own. <\/p>\n
Working with Trump to pressure Putin to a negotiating table \u2013 whatever the terms of a deal \u2013 would also mark a stark shift in Beijing\u2019s approach to the conflict so far. <\/p>\n
Xi and his officials have used the war as a platform to promote a vision for a China-led world, one where the American alliance system has been dismantled or weakened. <\/p>\n
\u201cChina focuses on building a coalition of non-Western nations, including influential developing countries like Brazil, to leverage the Ukraine conflict toward reshaping global security architecture and advancing an alternative vision of world order,\u201d said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the US. <\/p>\n
Beijing will have little incentive to engage in substantial cooperation with Washington for now, said Zhao, noting that its officials would, however, wait and see what benefits could be gained from any potential, broader deal-making with Trump. <\/p>\n
That said, the current American president \u2013 a NATO critic, who has repeatedly voiced personal admiration for Putin and Xi \u2013 may be a more appealing negotiating partner for both strongmen. <\/p>\n
Trump before taking office called for an \u201cimmediate ceasefire and negotiations\u201d \u2013 a position that jives with Beijing\u2019s stated stance on the war that has been criticized by the West as helpful to Russia. He\u2019s also in recent weeks echoed Moscow and Beijing\u2019s talking points, sympathizing with the Kremlin\u2019s view that Ukraine should not be part of NATO and that the war continued because America \u201cstarted pouring equipment\u201d into Ukraine. <\/p>\n
US lawmakers and some members of Trump\u2019s administration remain tough on both countries. But Trump\u2019s stance raises the question of whether there is a deal that Beijing, Moscow and Washington could orchestrate that would please all three \u2013 and what that could mean for Ukraine and the future of the conflict. <\/p>\n
\u201cYou can see how each could take something from (certain peace deals) \u2013 Putin can save face, Xi and Trump can claim to be peacemakers,\u201d said Robert Ward, director of geo-economics and strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Britain. <\/p>\n
But there\u2019s a risk in any agreement where Russia is left in possession of the parts of Ukraine it\u2019s now occupying that this becomes \u201ca conflict that isn\u2019t at an end, it\u2019s just a lull,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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