Wednesday\u2019s meeting at the NATO headquarters in Brussels was, on paper, about coordinating military aid for Ukraine and welcoming the new US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth into the international fold. In practice, it was a day that saw the Trump administration upend the alliance\u2019s approach to this almost 3-year-old war, lay out a vision that seemed to deliver some of Moscow\u2019s key demands, and leave NATO allies fighting to avoid the appearance of disunity. <\/p>\n
There were, of course, clear signs this was not going to be smooth sailing. US President Donald Trump fired the starting gun on this critical week of diplomacy by pouring cold water on Ukraine\u2019s hopes of a favorable peace deal. <\/p>\n
But coordinating with allies may not be a top priority for the Trump administration. Overnight it has lurched the NATO alliance from a stated policy that Ukraine was on an \u201cirreversible path\u201d to membership, to Hegseth\u2019s blunt statement: \u201cThe United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.\u201d <\/p>\n
Several of his European counterparts tried to argue the two positions were not incompatible. <\/p>\n
Whether or not this, or Hegseth\u2019s comment that Ukrainian ambitions to return to pre-2014 borders were \u201cunrealistic,\u201d were meant as a break with previous policy, one thing is clear. \u201cThe US is quite happy to march to its own beat and leave Europe and Ukraine to pick up the pieces,\u201d said Matthew Savill, Director of Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank in London. <\/p>\n
\u201cEuropean countries have to get with the mood music \u2026 If they think any US official or politician is going to stick their neck out for Europe, on Europe\u2019s behalf, they are kidding themselves.\u201d <\/p>\n
News at the end of the day in Brussels, that while NATO ministers tried to coordinate efforts to counter Russian aggression, President Trump spent 90 minutes on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin is a case in point. Ukraine\u2019s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, when asked about this at a briefing, simply walked away from the cameras. <\/p>\n
Amongst all the status-quo-churning statements from the Trump administration, there is one hard truth Europe must face. The 2% defense spending target, which a third of NATO members haven\u2019t even hit yet, is looking increasingly outdated. Hegseth even name-checked his boss to drive the message home. <\/p>\n
\u201cTwo percent is not enough; President Trump has called for 5%, and I agree,\u201d said Hegseth. \u201cThe United States will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency.\u201d And the urgency is not only coming from the US. \u201cIf we stick to 2% we cannot defend ourselves in four to five years,\u201d said Rutte. \u201cIt is crucial that Russia\u2019s rearmament is met by us.\u201d <\/p>\n
On this point, it\u2019s hard to find a NATO minister that wouldn\u2019t say they agree. Still, it is what they actually do that will matter. \u201cWe heard (Hegseth\u2019s) call for European nations to step up. We can, and we will,\u201d promised UK Defense Secretary Healey. <\/p>\n
And yet the UK\u2019s government has committed to raising its spending only from the current 2.3% level to 2.5% of GDP, without specifying a time period. <\/p>\n
Caught between a United States promising \u201cresourcing trade-offs\u201d as it prioritizes the Pacific, and a Russia whose defense industry is already vastly outproducing the EU, this may be a reality NATO\u2019s European members can no longer just agree with. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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