For weeks, US airstrikes have pounded Houthi targets in Yemen, hitting oil refineries, airports and missile sites, with President Trump vowing to use \u201coverwhelming force\u201d until the US achieves its goal of stopping the Houthis from targeting shipping in the Red Sea. <\/p>\n
The Houthis began the campaign in solidarity with Palestinians when Israel went to war in Gaza in October 2023. The group has carried out more than 100 attacks and have sunk two vessels. The result: 70% of merchant shipping that once transited the Red Sea now takes the long route around southern Africa. <\/p>\n
The US says the campaign is working. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said that multiple Houthi leaders had been killed. <\/p>\n
But every round of strikes provokes more defiance. <\/p>\n
The Houthis are what one veteran Yemen-watcher calls the honey badgers of resistance, referring to the belligerent mammal known for its fearless attitude toward predators. Bitten by a cobra, they get up minutes later and attack the snake. <\/p>\n
While as many as 80 Houthi military officers may have been killed, according to analysts, the senior echelon of its military and political leadership appears intact. So are at least some of its missile-launching sites. Since mid-March, the Houthis have launched a dozen ballistic missiles at Israel, and barrages of drones and missiles at US navy ships. While none caused major damage, the threat remains. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe are burning through readiness \u2014 munitions, fuel, deployment time,\u201d said one official. <\/p>\n
Far from being cowed, the Houthis have threatened to extend their range of targets to the UAE, which backs the rival government to the Houthis in Yemen\u2019s Civil War. Similarly, Saudi officials say the Kingdom\u2019s air defenses are on high alert. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe dozens of airstrikes on Yemen will not deter the Yemeni Armed Forces from fulfilling their religious, moral, and humanitarian duties,\u201d said a Houthi spokesman earlier this week. <\/p>\n
There\u2019s no doubt that the US campaign has degraded the Houthis\u2019 capabilities. Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, says he suspects the Houthis \u201chave lost a lot of drone manufacturing capability, and there does seem to be more effective interdiction of resupply shipments coming via the sea and via Oman. So the Houthis are not comfortable.\u201d <\/p>\n
But history shows that the Houthis have an extraordinarily high tolerance for pain. And the Trump administration\u2019s determination to eradicate the threat they pose may ultimately require a ground offensive. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe Houthis are just inured to being at war with a first world military,\u201d Knights says.\u201cThey\u2019re ideological, but they\u2019re also very tough tribal fighters from northern Yemen.\u201d <\/p>\n
The Houthis\u2019 ability to survive is helped by an elaborate smuggling network that brings in missile parts and other equipment. Last year, hidden among cargo on one intercepted ship, air frames and fins for artillery rockets, small turbojet engines and hydrogen fuel cells were discovered, according to an investigation by Conflict Armament Research (CAR). <\/p>\n
Such equipment could enable Houthi UAVs to carry larger payloads and to travel for far longer periods. That would \u201cgreatly extend the potential threat posed by the Houthis,\u201d CAR reported. <\/p>\n
The Houthis survived several offensives during the long presidency of Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, then a Saudi offensive ten years ago, followed by more recent Israeli, UK and US airstrikes. <\/p>\n
Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst on Yemen at the International Crisis Group, says Israel and western powers lack a deep understanding of the Houthis. \u201cTheir opaque leadership and internal structure have created persistent gaps in intelligence.\u201d <\/p>\n
Another Yemen expert, Elisabeth Kendall, questions the endgame of the US campaign. \u201cThe Houthis have been bombed tens of thousands of times over the past decade and remain undeterred. So one is left thinking that the bombing is largely performative: let\u2019s show the world – we\u2019ll do it because we can.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cThey are an extremely aggressive movement. The best way to end them permanently is to overthrow them, remove them from the capital, remove them from the Red Sea coast.\u201d <\/p>\n
Regional diplomatic sources, as well as analysts, say that ultimately only a ground offensive can dislodge the Houthis, who currently control the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, its major port, Hodeidah, and much of northern Yemen. <\/p>\n
Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst on Yemen at the International Crisis Group, says the US is wrong to believe that airstrikes can compel the Houthis to back down. \u201cThis approach failed under the Biden administration and is unlikely to succeed under the Trump administration.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cTheir logic is shaped by years of war; they see resilience as a form of strength and are driven to prove they are not easily deterred.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cThe only times I\u2019ve ever seen the Houthis go to the negotiating table or compromise has been when they\u2019ve been threatened with the realistic prospect of defeat on the ground: territorial loss, loss of control of populations and loss of access to the Red Sea coastline,\u201d said Knights. <\/p>\n
That briefly happened in 2017 when forces backed by the United Arab Emirates threatened Houthi access to the Red Sea, critical for the Houthis\u2019 revenue and military supplies. <\/p>\n
The Houthis, if anything, may actually be relishing US strikes. They are a \u201cdirect answer to the Houthi prayers to have a war with the US,\u201d said Farea Al-Muslimi, a Yemeni research fellow at Chatham House. The group \u201cwants to drag the US into a larger regional escalation.\u201d <\/p>\n
The Houthis are fighting for control of Yemen against the internationally recognized government that controls part of the south and is supported mainly by the UAE. The unanswered question is whether forces loyal to that government can take the fight to the Houthis.\u202f\u201cThey\u2019re already trained and equipped,\u201d says Knights. But there are doubts about their unity. <\/p>\n
Analysts do not expect the US to put any troops on the ground, beyond a handful of special forces to help direct airstrikes. The US would perhaps provide [Yemeni forces] \u201cwith a bit of logistics, certain key munitions,\u201d Knights says. <\/p>\n
The UAE would be \u201cquietly supportive\u201d as it has long supplied the Aden-based government, he adds. <\/p>\n
The Saudi perspective is less clear. Knights believes Riyadh is apprehensive about the Houthis retaliating with long-range drones and missiles against its infrastructure. But the US has accelerated deliveries of anti-missile defenses to Saudi Arabia in recent months. <\/p>\n
The US will have to say to Riyadh: \u201cWe are going to protect you in the same way that we protected Israel in 2024 from the two rounds of Iranian strikes,\u201d says Knights. <\/p>\n
Regional diplomatic sources say preparations are underway for a ground operation that would be launched from the south and east, as well as along the coast. A coordinated offensive could also involve Saudi and US naval support in an attempt to retake the port of Hodeidah. <\/p>\n
From day one, President Trump and other US officials have linked the campaign against the Houthis to Iran. Trump said he would hold Iran responsible for \u201cevery shot\u201d fired by Houthi rebels and it would face \u201cdire\u201d consequences for any attacks by the Yemeni militants. <\/p>\n
So far it hasn\u2019t, and it\u2019s unclear whether Tehran can simply order the Houthis to stop firing. While very much part of Iran\u2019s axis of resistance, the Houthis retain considerable autonomy. <\/p>\n
Trump continues to warn Iran that it will face a massive bombing campaign if it doesn\u2019t do a deal to limit its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. For the administration, the Houthi campaign and the \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d campaign on Tehran are two sides of the same coin. <\/p>\n
The Iranians are treading carefully, offering moral support to their ally in Yemen. Former Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Mohsen Rezaee hailed \u201cthe barefooted resistance forces of Yemen, who will bring advanced American warships to their knees.\u201d <\/p>\n
But the Iranian leadership does not want to be seen providing further military support for the Houthis right now as it tries to work out Trump\u2019s mixture of small carrot and large stick. <\/p>\n
The US appears ready to expand its campaign. B-2 bombers and KC-135 refuelling planes have arrived on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. That may presage strikes on hardened targets in Yemen but may equally be a signal to Iran. <\/p>\n
The next few weeks may be a crucial test of the honey badgers\u2019 resilience. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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