{"id":3755,"date":"2024-05-28T11:38:56","date_gmt":"2024-05-28T11:38:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/28\/americas-military-has-the-edge-in-space-china-and-russia-are-in-a-counterspace-race-to-disrupt-it\/"},"modified":"2024-05-28T11:38:56","modified_gmt":"2024-05-28T11:38:56","slug":"americas-military-has-the-edge-in-space-china-and-russia-are-in-a-counterspace-race-to-disrupt-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/28\/americas-military-has-the-edge-in-space-china-and-russia-are-in-a-counterspace-race-to-disrupt-it\/","title":{"rendered":"America\u2019s military has the edge in space. China and Russia are in a counterspace race to disrupt it"},"content":{"rendered":"

As Russian forces rolled over the Ukraine border in the first moments of their invasion, another, less visible onslaught was already underway \u2013 a cyberattack that crippled internet linked to a satellite communications network. <\/p>\n

That tech offensive \u2013 conducted by Russia an hour before its ground assault began in February 2022 \u2013 aimed to disrupt Kyiv\u2019s command and control in the pivotal early moments of the war, Western governments say. <\/p>\n

The cyberattack, which hit modems linked to a communication satellite, had far-reaching effects \u2013 stalling wind turbines in Germany and cutting the internet for tens of thousands of people and businesses across Europe. Following the attack, Ukraine scrambled for other ways to get online. <\/p>\n

For governments and security analysts, the cyberattack underscored how satellites \u2013\u2013 which play an increasingly critical role helping militaries position troops, run communications, and launch or detect weapons \u2013 can become a key target during war. <\/p>\n

As countries and companies build out satellite constellations, a growing number of governments are vying for technology that could disrupt or even destroy adversaries\u2019 assets \u2013 not just on land, like Russia\u2019s alleged cyberattack \u2013 but in space too. <\/p>\n

Enter signal jamming and spoofing, high-powered lasers to dazzle imaging sensors, anti-satellite missiles and spacecraft with the capacity to interfere with others in orbit \u2013 counterspace technologies that analysts say leading powers like the United States, Russia and China could use to target each other\u2019s satellites. <\/p>\n

Far from only affecting military-use satellites, such a weapon could have broad, devastating impacts \u2013 for example, upending satellites the world relies on to predict the weather and respond to disasters, or even potentially affecting global navigation systems used for everything from banking and cargo shipping to hailing a ride share and ambulance dispatch. <\/p>\n

Last week, the US accused Russia of launching a satellite \u201cpresumably capable of attacking others in low Earth orbit,\u201d with American officials saying it follows prior Russian satellite launches of likely \u201ccounterspace systems\u201d in 2019 and 2022. <\/p>\n

Tracking countries\u2019 development of counterspace capabilities is difficult, given their closely guarded nature and the dual use ambiguity of many space technologies. <\/p>\n

Both Russia and China have advanced their development of tech that could be used for such purposes in recent years, while the US builds on related space research and capabilities, according to experts and open-source reports. <\/p>\n

Development of counterspace technologies is playing out amid a new era of focus on space \u2013 where the US and China are competing to put astronauts on the moon and build research bases there and advances in satellite launch technology mean a growing number of actors, including US adversaries like North Korea and Iran, are putting assets in orbit. <\/p>\n

And as geopolitical rivalries mount on Earth, experts say Beijing and Moscow are increasingly interested in finding ways to deny the US \u2013 as the country with the most ground-based capabilities linked to space \u2013 the ability to use them. <\/p>\n

Counterspace race<\/h2>\n

The idea of weapons aimed at or positioned in space remains highly controversial, but it isn\u2019t new. <\/p>\n

Decades ago, the US and the Soviet Union vied for technologies to knock-out each other\u2019s satellites, with Russia\u2019s 1957 launch of Sputnik \u2013 the world\u2019s first artificial satellite \u2013 quickly followed by US counterspace tests. <\/p>\n

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, America has become the pre-eminent power when it comes to capabilities in space linked to conducting military operations on Earth, analysts say \u2013 a strength Russia and China have hoped to turn against it to even the battlefield. <\/p>\n

\u201cDeveloping counterspace capabilities such as (anti-satellite) weapons provides a means to disrupt your adversary\u2019s space-based capabilities, whether it is communication, navigation, or command and control systems and logistics networks that rely on space-based systems,\u201d said Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, director of the Center for Security, Strategy & Technology at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. <\/p>\n

\u201cDenying the US any advantage it may have from the use of space in a conventional military conflict is what is driving Russia and China in terms of their capability development and strategies,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n

\n
Direct-ascent anti-satellite missiles <\/strong>are fired from Earth to take out a satellite target in space.” class=”image_inline-small__dam-img image_inline-small__dam-img–loading” onload=”this.classList.remove(‘image_inline-small__dam-img–loading’)” onerror=”imageLoadError(this)” height=”787″ width=”639″ loading=”lazy”> <\/div>\n
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Direct-ascent anti-satellite missiles <\/strong>are fired from Earth to take out a satellite target in space.<\/span> <\/div>
Illustration by CNN<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

To this end, Russia is believed to have dusted off Cold War-era anti-satellite research programs, such as for the development of an \u201caircraft-borne laser system\u201d to disrupt imagery reconnaissance satellites, according to an annual report by the independent US-based Secure World Foundation (SWF) released in March. <\/p>\n

New evidence suggests Russia may also be working to expand on its ground-based electronic warfare capabilities with the development of space-based technology for jamming satellite signals in orbit, said the report, which is compiled using open-source intelligence. <\/p>\n

\n
Co-orbital anti-satellite technologies<\/strong> could be placed into orbit before moving toward their target for operations including attack. Satellites with robotic arms could both repair or interfere with other satellites.” class=”image_inline-small__dam-img image_inline-small__dam-img–loading” onload=”this.classList.remove(‘image_inline-small__dam-img–loading’)” onerror=”imageLoadError(this)” height=”787″ width=”639″ loading=”lazy”> <\/div>\n
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Co-orbital anti-satellite technologies<\/strong> could be placed into orbit before moving toward their target for operations including attack. Satellites with robotic arms could both repair or interfere with other satellites.<\/span> <\/div>
Illustration by CNN<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

In recent years, Russia has also launched spacecraft that appear able to surveil foreign satellites \u2013 with the high velocity of two of these devices and suggestions others were able to release aerosols indicating they could be weapons tests, according to SWF. <\/p>\n

China announced its own counterspace ambitions in 2007 when it launched a missile some 500 miles into space to take down one of its own aging weather satellites. The move broke a decades-long, post-Cold War lull in such destructive, \u201cdirect ascent\u201d anti-satellite missile testing, and was followed by similar operations from the US, India and Russia. <\/p>\n

Since then, <\/strong>China is believed by analysts to have conducted multiple, nondestructive missile tests that could advance its ability to target satellites. The most recent of those was last April, according to SWF, though, like others, that was described by Beijing as a missile intercept technology test. <\/p>\n

\n
Jamming<\/strong> devices<\/strong> can disrupt communications to or from a satellite. Uplink jamming will interfere with the signal on its way from Earth to a satellite, while downlink disrupts the signal from a satellite to a ground-based user.” class=”image_inline-small__dam-img image_inline-small__dam-img–loading” onload=”this.classList.remove(‘image_inline-small__dam-img–loading’)” onerror=”imageLoadError(this)” height=”787″ width=”639″ loading=”lazy”> <\/div>\n
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Jamming<\/strong> devices<\/strong> can disrupt communications to or from a satellite. Uplink jamming will interfere with the signal on its way from Earth to a satellite, while downlink disrupts the signal from a satellite to a ground-based user.<\/span> <\/div>
Illustration by CNN<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

China is also believed by the US Space Force to be \u201cdeveloping jammers to target a wide range of satellite communications\u201d and to have \u201cmultiple ground-based laser systems.\u201d <\/p>\n

Other Chinese operations in space are difficult to explicitly classify as weapons research but could have a military purpose, experts say. Those include satellites that can approach or rendezvous with others in orbit, such as for support and maintenance purposes, like the Shiyan-7, launched in 2013 and likely equipped with a robotic arm. <\/p>\n

There is suggestion from within China of the potential dual use of such technology. In a 2021 state media interview, Zang Jihui, a People\u2019s Liberation Army (PLA) engineer, described China\u2019s experiments with a satellite \u201cequipped with a robotic arm, able to change orbit and conduct all-round detection of other satellites\u201d as part of its \u201canti-satellite capabilities.\u201d <\/p>\n

Beijing included safeguarding its \u201csecurity interests in outer space\u201d as among its national defense goals in a 2019 white paper, but has long said it stands \u201cfor the peaceful use of outer space\u201d and opposes an arms race there. SWF says there is no confirmed public evidence of China using counterspace capabilities against any military targets. <\/p>\n

Russia has also said it opposes weapons in space. Both countries in recent years have established military forces dedicated to aerospace, as has the US, which launched its Space Force in 2019 as the first new military branch since 1947. <\/p>\n

US officials have described America as a leader in advancing the \u201cresponsible and peaceful use\u201d of outer space. And given its reliance on space for its defense, experts say the US military has the most at stake when it comes to ensuring countries don\u2019t use technologies against satellites there \u2013 one reason analysts say the US policy community has long shunned placing weapons in space. <\/p>\n

Among all nations, only non-destructive capabilities like signals jamming have been actively used against satellites in current military operations, according to SWF. <\/p>\n

\u2018Deny\u2019 China<\/h2>\n

Since it took down one of its own malfunctioning satellites with a missile in 2008 after China\u2019s test, Washington has pledged to no longer conduct such destructive, direct-ascent anti-satellite missile tests, which can generate dangerous space debris, and is not believed to have an operational program for such capabilities. <\/p>\n

It also doesn\u2019t have an acknowledged operational program to target satellites from within orbit using other satellites or spacecraft, though it could likely quickly field one in the future, according to SWF. <\/p>\n

\n
Cyberattacks <\/strong>could target the operating systems and data of satellites or ground-based receivers and equipment to disrupt, intercept or break communications.” class=”image_inline-small__dam-img image_inline-small__dam-img–loading” onload=”this.classList.remove(‘image_inline-small__dam-img–loading’)” onerror=”imageLoadError(this)” height=”787″ width=”639″ loading=”lazy”> <\/div>\n
\n
Cyberattacks <\/strong>could target the operating systems and data of satellites or ground-based receivers and equipment to disrupt, intercept or break communications.<\/span> <\/div>
Illustration by CNN<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

That\u2019s because the US has done extensive non-offensive testing of technologies to approach and rendezvous with satellites, including close approaches of its own military satellites and several Russian and Chinese military satellites, SWF says. <\/p>\n

The US only has one acknowledged, operational counterspace system \u2013 electronic warfare capabilities to interfere with satellite signals \u2013 and its army is widely seen to have advanced abilities to jam communications and capabilities to interfere with certain navigation satellites. It also has considerable research on ground-based lasers that could be used to dazzle or blind imaging satellites, according to SWF, which says there\u2019s no indication those have become operational. <\/p>\n

\n
Directed energy weapons, <\/strong>like lasers, could be used to temporarily dazzle or permanently disable a satellite\u2019s image sensor or potentially damage its internal function.” class=”image_inline-small__dam-img image_inline-small__dam-img–loading” onload=”this.classList.remove(‘image_inline-small__dam-img–loading’)” onerror=”imageLoadError(this)” height=”787″ width=”639″ loading=”lazy”> <\/div>\n
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Directed energy weapons, <\/strong>like lasers, could be used to temporarily dazzle or permanently disable a satellite\u2019s image sensor or potentially damage its internal function.<\/span> <\/div>
Illustration by CNN<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Speaking in Washington in November, US Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman explained why the US felt it needed to be able to counter other countries\u2019 space capabilities. He pointed to what he described as a \u201ckill web\u201d strategy used by China\u2019s PLA to enhance the range and accuracy of its weapons within the strategically important \u201csecond island chain,\u201d running from Japan to Guam. <\/p>\n

\u201cThat is all a space-enabled capability,\u201d Saltzman said. <\/p>\n

And should Beijing decide to use those weapons, \u201cWe have to be able to deny (China) access to the information to break that kill chain so that our joint forces are not immediately in target and in range inside the second island chain,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, concerns about potential adversaries\u2019 space activities have pushed US allies, including France and Australia, to seek counterspace abilities \u2013 often non-destructive ways to interfere with enemy satellites, known as \u201csoft-kill\u201d capabilities, such as lasers to disrupt surveillance and jamming. <\/p>\n

Israel has also said it used GPS jamming in its war in Gaza to \u201cneutralize\u201d threats, likely ground-based efforts to avert missiles that reach their target using GPS tracking. <\/p>\n

More broadly, there has been a trend toward shorter-term-impact measures like jamming, spoofing and cyberattacks that don\u2019t permanently damage or destroy a target, according to Juliana Suess, a research fellow for space security at London-based defense think tank RUSI. <\/p>\n

\u201c(Actors) don\u2019t need to invest a whole lot of money into manufacturing these big sci-fi sounding anti-satellite weapons \u2013 they can just disrupt a whole network through a cyberattack,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n

\u2018Wipe out\u2019<\/h2>\n

More than 7,500 operational satellites are orbiting the Earth, according to the most recent figures from the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) in May 2023. <\/p>\n

Of those satellites, more than 5,000 were US-owned, with most of them commercial. Nearest competitor China \u2013 which has been increasing its satellite launches \u2013 had 628, followed by Russia with fewer than 200, according to UCS. <\/p>\n

Since it invaded Ukraine, Moscow has accused the West of using commercial satellite systems for military purposes and warned that \u201cquasi-civil infrastructure may become a legitimate target for retaliation.\u201d <\/p>\n

Russia has also been accused of mounting cyberattacks against the largest commercial satellite constellation, American company SpaceX\u2019s Starlink, which has been an asset for the Ukrainian military. <\/p>\n

When it comes to allegations of developing a nuclear space-based weapon, Moscow has slammed the West as attempting to \u201cassign to us a certain plan of action which we do not have.\u201d <\/p>\n

A nuclear weapon in space would be a potential last-resort option \u2013 or hanging sword \u2013 for its potential to wipe out a wide swath of satellites, albeit indiscriminately. <\/p>\n

If Russia is developing \ufeffsuch a weapon, its concerns about American constellations like Starlink that have shown military utility are \u201clikely a key motivating factor,\u201d according to Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank in Washington. <\/p>\n

One reason is that as satellite constellations proliferate \u2013 aided by advances that have made launches in low Earth orbit (no more than 1,200 miles above the planet) cheaper and easier \u2013 it could be difficult for an attacker to cause an impact by simply targeting a single satellite. <\/p>\n

By contrast, \u201cemployment of such (nuclear) weapons in space could wipe out large satellite constellations, potentially creating long-lasting debris and radioactive remnants that render orbits unusable for military and civilian purposes,\u201d Zhao said. That, he added, could also inflict \u201can inconceivable setback on the preservation of space as a common domain for future human development.\u201d <\/p>\n

Chinese scientists have expressed concern about a potential national security risk of Starlink, with a group writing in the peer-reviewed domestic publication \u201cModern Defense Technology\u201d in 2022 that \u201ca combination of soft and hard kill methods should be adopted to incapacitate some Starlink satellites functioning abnormally and destroy the constellation\u2019s operating system.\u201d <\/p>\n

It\u2019s unclear whether this view reflects thinking within the Chinese government. <\/p>\n

Chinese researchers have also considered the ramifications of nuclear detonation in space, with a separate group at a nuclear technology institute publishing research last year on computer simulations of the impact of such blasts at different altitudes, in which they noted there could be potential effects on satellites and other aircraft. <\/p>\n

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<\/div>\n
\n
The fallout from the 1962 Starfish Prime test was visible in the sky over Honolulu, Hawaii.<\/span> <\/div>
EMP Commission<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Space treaty<\/h2>\n

Nuclear weapons already have a controversial history linked to space. <\/p>\n

America\u2019s 1962 Starfish Prime nuclear test some 250 miles over Earth damaged at least a third of the 24 satellites operating around that time, according to military documents. It also knocked out powerlines in Hawaii and turned the sky above it a violent shade of orange for hours. The test, launched from Earth, was part of series to evaluate the effect of such explosions, including against ballistic missiles. <\/p>\n

Five years later, countries concerned about the heating space race and nuclear standoffs banned the stationing of weapons of mass destruction in space with the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which doesn\u2019t explicitly ban conventional weapons in orbit or missiles launched from Earth. <\/p>\n

Though decades old, experts say that treaty \u2013 which affirms that space should be used for the benefit of all countries and is endorsed by Washington, Beijing and Moscow \u2013 remains a bedrock for a domain that lacks extensive international norms to ensure peace. <\/p>\n

Its tenets may be more relevant now than ever \u2013 but potentially under greater threat amid a new focus on military and space. <\/p>\n

Last month, Russia vetoed an effort in the United Nations Security Council led by the US and Japan to reaffirm the Outer Space Treaty principles, including the obligation not to place nuclear weapons in space. The resolution would have been the council\u2019s first on outer space and was supported by all other members besides China, which abstained. <\/p>\n

Instead, China and Russia, which have long worked together to shape rules around weapons in outer space, pushed for that resolution to be broadened to ban the placement of any weapons in space. <\/p>\n

Using language that appeared to target the US, it called on \u201call states, and above all those with major space capabilities\u201d to prevent the \u201cthreat or use of force\u201d in space. A second draft resolution backed by Russia that included that amendment, was rejected by the council last week, with the US calling it \u201cdisingenuous.\u201d <\/p>\n

Any future efforts to agree on rules for space face a complicated outlook, experts say. <\/p>\n

For example, placement in space of a nuclear weapon like the one Russia is reportedly considering would have far-reaching implications on how space is used \u2013 and how weapons are controlled, according to RUSI\u2019s Suess. <\/p>\n

\u201cIf the Outer Space Treaty was broken in such a way, it would make it even harder to imagine where multilateral efforts can go from here,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

This post appeared first on cnn.com<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As Russian forces rolled over the Ukraine border in the first moments of their invasion, another, less visible onslaught was already underway \u2013 a cyberattack that crippled internet linked to a satellite communications network. That tech offensive \u2013 conducted by Russia an hour before its ground assault began in February 2022 \u2013 aimed to disrupt <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3756,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-3755","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3755"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3755\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3756"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}