As tremors shook the ground in parts of western Japan last Thursday, local and national government bodies leapt into action. <\/p>\n
Meteorologists gathered and issued a temporary tsunami advisory. A special committee warned that another \u201cmajor earthquake\u201d could hit in the coming week \u2013 the first time in its history the body had issued this type of nationwide advisory. High-speed trains slowed down as a precaution, causing travel delays, and the country\u2019s prime minister canceled his overseas trips. <\/p>\n
In the end, the government lifted most advisories and reported no major damage from the 7.1-magnitude quake. But much of the country remains on high alert, preparing for a potential emergency during what is normally peak travel season during summer holidays \u2013 reflecting Japan\u2019s laser-focus on earthquake preparedness. <\/p>\n
However, some experts have cast doubt on whether such an advisory is necessary, or even accurate \u2013 and whether it risks pulling resources away from communities deemed lower risk. <\/p>\n
Japan is no stranger to severe earthquakes. It lies on the Ring of Fire, an area of intense seismic and volcanic activity on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. <\/p>\n
\u201cJapan sits on the boundaries of four tectonic plates, which makes it one of the most earthquake-prone areas in the world,\u201d said Shoichi Yoshioka, a professor at Japan\u2019s Kobe University. <\/p>\n
\u201cAbout 10% of the world\u2019s earthquakes of magnitude 6 or higher occur in or around Japan, so the risk is much higher than in places like Europe or the eastern United States, where earthquakes are rare,\u201d Yoshioka said. <\/p>\n
The worst quake in recent Japanese history was the 9.1 magnitude Tohoku earthquake in 2011 that triggered a major tsunami and nuclear disaster. About 20,000 people were killed. <\/p>\n
Then there\u2019s the looming threat of the Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake \u2013 the most powerful of its kind, with magnitudes that can exceed 9. Seismologists say this could come potentially within a few decades, though the science remains disputed. <\/p>\n
Japan\u2019s government has warned of the possible Nankai Trough quake for so many years that the possibility of it occurring has become common knowledge. But it\u2019s also controversial \u2013 with some scientists arguing it\u2019s ineffective to focus solely on the slim odds of a hypothetical earthquake in a specific part of Japan, especially when other parts of the country face similar threats but receive far less attention. <\/p>\n
The Nankai Trough is a 700-kilometer long (435-mile) subduction zone, which refers to when tectonic plates slip beneath each other. Most of the world\u2019s earthquakes and tsunamis are caused by the movements of tectonic plates \u2013 and the most powerful often occur in subduction zones. <\/p>\n
In this case, the tectonic plate under the Philippine Sea is slowly slipping beneath the continental plate where Japan is located, moving several centimeters each year, according to a 2013 report by the government\u2019s Earthquake Research Committee. <\/p>\n
At the Nankai Trough, severe earthquakes have been recorded every 100 to 200 years, according to the committee. The last such quakes took place in 1944 and 1946, both measuring 8.1 in magnitude; they devastated Japan, with at least 2,500 total deaths and thousands more injured, as well as tens of thousands of homes destroyed. <\/p>\n
By calculating the intervals between each major quake, the Japanese government has warned there is a 70% to 80% chance that Japan will be rocked by another Nankai Trough earthquake within 30 years, expected to be between magnitude 8 and 9. <\/p>\n
But these forecasts, and the utility of even making long-term imprecise predictions, have faced strong pushback from some quarters. <\/p>\n
Yoshioka, from Kobe University, said the 70%-80% figure was likely too high, and that the data drew from one specific theory, making it potentially more prone to errors. However, he had no doubt that \u201ca major earthquake will occur in this area\u201d in the future. <\/p>\n
\u201cI tell (my students), the Nankai Trough earthquake will definitely come, whether it\u2019s your generation or your children\u2019s generation,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
Robert Geller, a seismologist and professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo, was more skeptical, calling the Nankai Trough earthquake a \u201cmade-up construct\u201d and a \u201cpurely hypothetical scenario.\u201d <\/p>\n
He also argued that earthquakes don\u2019t occur in cycles, but can take place at any place and time \u2013 meaning there\u2019s little point calculating when the next quake will come based on when previous ones have occurred. <\/p>\n
It\u2019s a point of contention in the scientific community; seismologists have long relied on the idea that stress accumulates slowly along a fault between two tectonic plates, then is suddenly released in earthquakes, a cycle known as the \u201cstick-slip\u201d process \u2013 though more recent studies have shown that\u2019s not always the case. <\/p>\n
Even if there is a potential threat on the horizon, the odds are extremely low, with both Yoshioka and Geller calling the public safety measures taken in the past week excessive or unnecessary. <\/p>\n
It is true that after one earthquake, a second, larger one can follow \u2013 which is why authorities issued the unprecedented warning last Thursday, Yoshioka said. But even then, the probability of the Nankai Trough earthquake happening the next day is low \u2013 perhaps increasing from the typical risk of one in 1,000 to one in a few hundred. That\u2019s still less than a 1% chance, he said. <\/p>\n
The danger of overblowing these low odds is that, \u201cYou would be like the boy who cried wolf,\u201d Geller said. \u201cYou\u2019d be issuing these warnings of a slightly larger than normal probability over and over and over again, and the public would get tired of you in a big hurry.\u201d <\/p>\n
However, there are no signs of public fatigue yet, with people nationwide on high alert. <\/p>\n
Yota Sugai, a 23-year-old college student, said seeing the warning on television \u201cmade me feel a sense of urgency and fear, like a wake-up call.\u201d After Thursday\u2019s quake, he secured emergency supplies like food and water, monitored online maps for hazardous areas, and considered visiting his relatives in coastal areas to help them plan evacuation routes. <\/p>\n
\u2060\u201cThe recent earthquake on New Year\u2019s Day reminded me that you never know when the earthquake will hit. It made me realize the terrifying power of nature,\u201d he said, referring to the 7.5 magnitude quake that hit the Noto Peninsula on January 1 this year \u2013 killing hundreds, including dozens who died after the quake from related causes. <\/p>\n
Student Mashiro Ogawa, 21, took similar precautions, preparing an \u201cemergency kit\u201d at home and urging her parents to do the same. She\u2019s going to avoid beaches for now and change the furniture in her home, such as moving shelves away from her bed and lowering their height, she said. <\/p>\n
\u2060\u201cIt didn\u2019t feel like a close issue before, but now it feels very real,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n
Part of the reason people are taking this so seriously is because of how many earthquakes rock Japan, and how fresh they feel. The 2011 disaster left major scars on the national psyche, which are compounded by new major quakes every few years. <\/p>\n
\u201cEach time, we witness the tragic loss of lives, buildings being crushed, and tsunamis causing devastation, leaving a lasting impression of fear,\u201d said Yoshioka, from Kobe University. \u201cThis fear is likely shared by many citizens. I think this contributes significantly to why Japan is so prepared.\u201d <\/p>\n
It\u2019s why \u201cthe Japanese government also emphasizes preparation to avoid another major tragedy like the 2011 earthquake,\u201d he added. Japan is largely recognized to be a world leader in earthquake preparedness and resiliency, from its infrastructure and building codes to its relief and rescue systems. <\/p>\n
Megumi Sugimoto, an associate professor at Osaka University specializing in disaster prevention, said that preparedness starts in school \u2013 with even kindergartens holding evacuation and earthquake drills for toddlers. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s not only (earthquakes and) tsunamis, but other disasters occur frequently, especially in the summer season,\u201d she said, pointing to typhoons, severe rain and flooding. Public awareness and precautions, like stocking up on emergency supplies, can help protect people from \u201cany type of disasters,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n
But there\u2019s still work to be done. Sugimoto and Geller, from the University of Tokyo, both pointed to the Noto earthquake as exposing gaps in Japan\u2019s response systems, with road collapses that stranded the worst-hit communities, and many displaced residents still without homes months afterward. <\/p>\n
And, they said, the obstacles in Noto point to the risk of focusing too much attention on the Nankai Trough, when other parts of the country are just as threatened. <\/p>\n
For instance, Sugimoto used to work in Fukuoka, on the southwest island of Kyushu. The area where she lived has experienced damaging quakes in the past, despite not being labeled as one of the high-risk areas near the Nankai Trough. <\/p>\n
Because of that, \u201cpeople didn\u2019t prepare well,\u201d she said. And whereas the Nankai Trough area received government funding for quake preparations, \u201cthe Fukuoka area where I was living is not supported by the central government.\u201d <\/p>\n
Geller added that while the emphasis on Nankai has made people in that region well-prepared, it\u2019s \u201cbad for rest of the country. Because people think, Nankai is very dangerous, but we\u2019re OK here in Kumamoto, or in the Noto Peninsula,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
\u201cSo, it has the effect of lulling everyone into a sense of false security, except in the supposedly imminent area.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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