A stretch of uninhabited, low-lying reefs in the South China Sea is fast becoming a dangerous new flashpoint between China and the Philippines, dealing a blow to recent efforts to de-escalate tensions in one of the world\u2019s most vital waterways. <\/p>\n
Over the past week, Chinese and Philippine vessels have engaged in multiple collisions and face-offs near Sabina Shoal, a disputed atoll lying just 86 miles from the Philippines\u2019 west coast and 745 miles from China, which claims almost all of the South China Sea as its sovereign territory despite an international ruling to the contrary. <\/p>\n
The violent confrontations came just weeks after Beijing and Manila struck a temporary deal to lower tensions that had been rising all summer at another nearby reef, where China\u2019s increasingly aggressive tactics had raised alarm across the region as well as in Washington, a mutual defense ally of the Philippines. <\/p>\n
Renewed tension in the South China Sea is expected to be on the agenda of meetings between US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during Sullivan\u2019s visit to China this week. <\/p>\n
Following a particularly violent encounter at the Second Thomas Shoal in June, which saw Chinese coast guard personnel brandishing axes at Filipino soldiers and slashing their rubber boats, Chinese and Philippine officials sat down for talks and agreed to de-escalate. <\/p>\n
For a while, tensions appeared to be cooling, but the detente proved short lived. <\/p>\n
On August 19, in the middle of the night, coast guard ships from China and the Philippines collided near Sabina Shoal. Manila said the Chinese ships rammed into its vessels, tearing a 3.6-foot hole in one and a 3-foot-wide gap in another. Beijing blamed the Philippines for the collisions. <\/p>\n
Then, last Sunday afternoon, another clash took place, with the Philippines accusing China of ramming and firing water cannons at a vessel from its fisheries bureau in an encounter with eight Chinese ships, including a warship from the People\u2019s Liberation Army Navy. China said the Philippine ship \u201crefused to accept control\u201d by a Chinese coast guard vessel and \u201cdeliberately collided\u201d with it. <\/p>\n
The following day, in yet another tense encounter, the Philippines said China deployed \u201can excessive force\u201d of 40 ships \u2013 including three PLA Navy warships \u2013 to block two Philippine Coast Guard vessels. Beijing said it took \u201ccontrol measures\u201d against two Philippine ships that \u201cintruded\u201d into waters near Sabina Shoal. <\/p>\n
Analysts say Sabina Shoal is fast becoming the latest confrontation zone in what is already a highly contested part of the world, where a mistake could quickly spiral into a conflict with hugely damaging consequences. <\/p>\n
\u201cAll indications seem to point to the fact that this is an emerging third flashpoint\u201d after the Second Thomas Shoal and another atoll to the north named the Scarborough Shoal, said Collin Koh, research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. <\/p>\n
\u201cManila is trying to avoid what they call a repeat of the Scarborough Shoal,\u201d which China seized in 2012 after a long standoff with the Philippines and on which it has maintained a permanent presence since, Koh added. <\/p>\n
China, on the other hand, is trying to see off another Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines ran aground a World War II-era ship in 1999 to stake its claim over the reef and has stationed a small group of marines since. <\/p>\n
The violent clashes around Second Thomas Shoal earlier this summer occurred during Beijing\u2019s attempts to block Manila\u2019s missions to resupply its soldiers stationed on the rusting BRP Sierra Madre. <\/p>\n
A similar blockade is playing out at Sabina Shoal, which is about 40 miles closer to the Philippine coast than the Second Thomas Shoal. Both lie within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines. <\/p>\n
Since April, the Philippines has deployed a coast guard vessel to Sabina Shoal to monitor what it said were signs of China\u2019s illegal land reclamation activities, after Filipino scientists discovered piles of crushed corals on the sandbars amid an increased presence of Chinese ships in the area. China has denied the accusation. <\/p>\n
Displacing 2,300 tons, the 318-foot-long BRP Teresa Magbanua anchored at Sabina Shoal is one of the two largest ships that the Philippine Coast Guard has and is its flagship. Acquired from Japan in 2022, it is also one of the newest ships in Manila\u2019s fleet, carrying a crew of 67. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis has really annoyed China and they want that (Philippine) vessel to go away,\u201d said Ray Powell, director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University\u2019s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation. <\/p>\n
\u201cChina refers to it \u2026 as a \u2018quasi-grounding,\u2019 so they\u2019re basically treating it like it\u2019s the Sierra Madre all over again even though it is not grounded, it\u2019s anchored.\u201d <\/p>\n
And Beijing has been gradually upping the pressure on Manila. <\/p>\n
In July, China anchored one of its \u201cmonster\u201d coast guard ships, the 12,000-ton CCG-5901, near Sabina Shoal. The CCG-5901 is more than five times the size of the Philippines\u2019 Teresa Magbanua and larger than any other regular coast guard ship in the world. <\/p>\n
\u201cInitially the Chinese were trying to warn Manila to roll back at Sabina Shoal. That\u2019s why they send the monster ship just to create an impression,\u201d Koh said. <\/p>\n
\u201cBut the Filipinos were sitting still and not moving at all. So I guess the Chinese likely have reached a point where they concluded that they need to up the pressure on the Filipinos, which is why we saw what\u2019s happening recently.\u201d <\/p>\n
In recent weeks, Chinese state media have accused the Philippines of trying to establish a long-term presence at Sabina Shoal to occupy the reef and indicated that China will not allow any resupply missions to proceed. <\/p>\n
\u201cChina will never be deceived by the Philippines again,\u201d Chinese state news agency Xinhua said in a commentary about the Sunday faceoff, citing Manila\u2019s grounding of the Sierra Madre at the Second Thomas Shoal back in 1999. <\/p>\n
On Monday, the Philippine Coast Guard said it had deployed two ships on a \u201chumanitarian mission\u201d to deliver vital food and supplies to its personnel stationed abroad the Teresa Magbanua, including \u201ca special ice cream treat\u201d in honor of the country\u2019s National Heroes\u2019 Day. <\/p>\n
(Teresa Magbanua, one of the heroes commemorated on the day, was one of the few women to lead Filipino troops in battles against Spanish colonizers during the Philippine Revolution and against American forces in the Philippine-American war.) <\/p>\n
But the mission failed due to the obstruction of 40 Chinese ships, according to the Philippine Coast Guard. <\/p>\n
If China continues to block the Philippines from resupplying the Teresa Magbanua with food, water and fuel or rotating its crew, the Philippine ship will have to sail away, Powell said. <\/p>\n
For now, neither Beijing nor Malina appear willing to back down. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a high-stakes game for Manila,\u201d Koh said. \u201cThe domestic circumstances all point to the very fact that now Sabina Shoal is where you could not yield an inch to the Chinese\u2026 Marcos Jr is definitely right on the chopping board for that,\u201d he added, referring to Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. <\/p>\n
Since coming to power in 2022, Marcos Jr has strengthened Manila\u2019s alliance with the US and increasingly challenged China\u2019s expansive claims in the South China Sea, which an international tribunal said had no legal basis in a landmark ruling in 2016. <\/p>\n
His predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, a firebrand populist who launched a notoriously brutal anti-drug war, favored a much warmer relationship with Beijing and was much less willing to confront Beijing over the South China Sea. <\/p>\n
Manila\u2019s current \u201ctransparency initiative\u201d to expose China\u2019s growing assertiveness in the disputed waters has won it international support, especially from Western countries, but Beijing is not deterred by negative press, Powell said. <\/p>\n
\u201cChina seems to be speeding up its agenda for taking control of West Philippine Sea features,\u201d he said. \u201cThey have the capacity and they have the will, and they have not seen anything yet that says to them that the cost is going to be too high.\u201d <\/p>\n
Meanwhile, both Beijing and Manila are watching closely for how Washington will react. <\/p>\n
American officials have repeatedly pledged to defend the Philippines from any armed attack in the disputed waters, stressing Washington\u2019s \u201cironclad commitment\u201d to a 1951 defense treaty between the two allies. <\/p>\n
Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said Tuesday that American ships could escort Philippine vessels on resupply missions in the South China Sea, describing what he called an \u201can entirely reasonable option\u201d that required consultation between the treaty allies, according to Reuters. <\/p>\n
But being dragged into another global conflict will not be in US interests, especially in the run-up to its presidential election, Koh said, adding that Washington is already occupied with Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and the raging war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe Chinese know that Manila has very limited options if they could not depend on US help,\u201d Koh said. \u201cChina is deliberately escalating the situation, with a likely intention to test how far Washington would support Manila.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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