{"id":8178,"date":"2024-09-29T11:40:58","date_gmt":"2024-09-29T11:40:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/29\/what-might-come-next-as-hezbollah-reels-from-nasrallahs-killing-and-israel-mulls-a-lebanon-ground-incursion\/"},"modified":"2024-09-29T11:40:58","modified_gmt":"2024-09-29T11:40:58","slug":"what-might-come-next-as-hezbollah-reels-from-nasrallahs-killing-and-israel-mulls-a-lebanon-ground-incursion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/29\/what-might-come-next-as-hezbollah-reels-from-nasrallahs-killing-and-israel-mulls-a-lebanon-ground-incursion\/","title":{"rendered":"What might come next as Hezbollah reels from Nasrallah\u2019s killing and Israel mulls a Lebanon ground incursion?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The last 48 hours in the Middle East \u2013 in which Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and continued to bombard the Iran-backed group across Lebanon \u2013 have once more ratcheted up fears that this long-running conflict could spiral into a wider regional war. <\/p>\n

Nasrallah\u2019s killing, in a huge set of Israeli airstrikes on his underground headquarters in Beirut on Friday, marks a significant escalation in the conflict between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group, which has been firing on Israel since the start of its war against Hamas in Gaza. <\/p>\n

It is also the latest in a string of major blows to Hezbollah, which has now lost multiple commanders and was already reeling after pagers and walkie-talkies owned by its members exploded earlier this month, killing dozens and maiming thousands. <\/p>\n

Israel has warned that a \u201cnew era\u201d of war was beginning with its \u201ccenter of gravity\u201d moving north, in a reference to the Lebanon border. One of its stated war aims is to return tens of thousands of its own civilians displaced by cross-border fighting. <\/p>\n

Hundreds of thousands have been displaced within Lebanon due to the recent fighting, while more than a thousand have been killed since the airstrikes escalated last week, according to Lebanese government officials. <\/p>\n

Israel has raised the possibility of a ground incursion into Lebanon, which, if undertaken, would be the fourth Israeli invasion of the country in the past 50 years. <\/p>\n

Hezbollah has vowed that it will \u201ccontinue its fight to confront the enemy,\u201d while Iran, which backs the group as part of its network of regional proxies, has given an assurance of its solidarity. <\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what we know so far and where things might go next. <\/p>\n

Escalating conflict<\/h2>\n

Israel has pounded what it says are Hezbollah targets in the Lebanese capital of Beirut and elsewhere in the country on Friday and Saturday, including the attack on the capital\u2019s southern suburbs that killed Nasrallah. <\/p>\n

Some of the strikes have come in densely populated areas, flattening residential buildings. Israel has said Hezbollah stores weapons in civilian buildings, which the group denies, and accuses Hezbollah of using residents as \u201chuman shields.\u201d <\/p>\n

Lebanese civilians say they cannot heed warnings from Israel\u2019s military to avoid places where Hezbollah is operating, because the group is highly secretive. The warnings also often come just minutes before a building is struck. <\/p>\n

Residents from Beirut\u2019s southern suburbs have been fleeing to escape Israeli bombardment, with many seen sleeping in public places with no space left in makeshift shelters. <\/p>\n

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<\/div>\n
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Men rest on mattresses near the sea in Beirut, Lebanon, after being displaced by Israeli airstrikes on September 28, 2024.<\/span> <\/div>
Carl Court\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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<\/div>\n
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Smoke rises from a building following an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, on September 28, 2024.<\/span> <\/div>
Carl Court\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The latest attacks come after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu brushed off a ceasefire proposal brokered by the United States and France that called for a 21-day pause in fighting across the Israel-Lebanon border. <\/p>\n

The White House has said it had \u201cno knowledge of or participation in\u201d Israel\u2019s Friday attack on Beirut, with US President Joe Biden describing Nasrallah\u2019s death as a \u201cmeasure of justice for his many victims,\u201d including Americans, while calling for de-escalation in conflicts across the Middle East. <\/p>\n

Earlier Saturday, Israel Defense Forces spokesman Peter Lerner said the military was preparing for the possibility of a ground incursion, but it was only one option being considered. <\/p>\n

What will Hezbollah \u2013 or Iran \u2013 do?<\/h2>\n

In the wake of Nasrallah\u2019s killing \u2013 and the attack on pagers and walkie-talkies \u2013 Hezbollah\u2019s remaining leaders are likely to be assessing how to meet, communicate and respond. <\/p>\n

Some of the factors that will impact that response \u2013 such as the extent to which Israeli strikes have reduced the group\u2019s munitions \u2013 remain unknown. But analysts say the setbacks faced by the group are unlikely to leave it completely weakened. <\/p>\n

\u201cHezbollah has taken the biggest blow to its military infrastructure since its inception,\u201d said Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and author of \u201cHezbollahland.\u201d <\/p>\n

The group, however, still retains skilled commanders, as well as many of its most powerful assets \u2013 including precision-guided missiles and long-range missiles that could inflict significant damage to Israel\u2019s military and civilian infrastructure, said Ghaddar. <\/p>\n

So far, there has not been a major barrage of rockets from Hezbollah that has caused significant, known damage to Israeli targets. And even in the wake of Nasrallah\u2019s killing the group has yet to launch a major retaliation at the level that could see Israel\u2019s Iron Dome air defense system overwhelmed and its power grid affected. <\/p>\n

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<\/div>\n
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The Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept rockets that were launched from Lebanon, as seen from Safed, northern Israel, on September 28, 2024.<\/span> <\/div>
Baz Ratner\/AP<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

But the latest development raises the potential for a shift. <\/p>\n

Another key question is the extent to which Iran could get involved. <\/p>\n

The state has appeared wary of moving into direct conflict with Israel, even as their long-standing shadow war has been pushed further into the open in recent months \u2013 and observers say direct Iranian retaliation could also draw the US further into the conflict. <\/p>\n

A senior US official said the US believes Iran will intervene in the conflict if they judge that they are about to \u201close\u201d Hezbollah. The combined effects of Israel\u2019s operations against Hezbollah had already taken hundreds of fighters off the battlefield, according to that official and another person familiar with the intelligence. <\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s embassy in Lebanon in a social media post Friday called Nasrallah\u2019s killing a \u201cserious escalation that changes the rules of the game,\u201d and said its perpetrator \u201cwill be punished and disciplined appropriately.\u201d <\/p>\n

The Iranian envoy to the United Nations on Saturday also requested an emergency meeting of the Security Council to \u201ccondemn Israel\u2019s actions in the strongest possible terms.\u201d <\/p>\n

But the space for diplomacy seems limited, especially as months of work on a ceasefire deal for the war in Gaza have seen little lasting progress. <\/p>\n

\u201cAt best, it\u2019s a question of deterrence, management and maybe, if Hezbollah, the Israelis and the Iranians are open to it\u2026 agreements that will contain conflict,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

This post appeared first on cnn.com<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The last 48 hours in the Middle East \u2013 in which Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and continued to bombard the Iran-backed group across Lebanon \u2013 have once more ratcheted up fears that this long-running conflict could spiral into a wider regional war. Nasrallah\u2019s killing, in a huge set of Israeli airstrikes on his <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8179,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-8178","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8178","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8178"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8178\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8179"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8178"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8178"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digitaltradecenter.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8178"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}