As Moldova\u2019s pro-EU president Maia Sandu celebrated victory in the early hours of Monday morning, in an election campaign she claimed involved \u201cunprecedented\u201d interference by Moscow, pro-Kremlin voices in Russia turned to the next page in their playbook: casting doubt on the result. <\/p>\n
Sandu narrowly won a second presidential term in Sunday\u2019s runoff vote, beating former prosecutor Alexandr Stoianoglu. According to Moldova\u2019s Central election commission, with 100% of votes counted, Sandu had 55% of the total. <\/p>\n
Konstantin Kosachev, deputy speaker of Russia\u2019s upper house of parliament, lamented the \u201cdisgraceful organization\u201d of the election in a post on Telegram Monday, claiming the opportunity to vote overseas was \u201cexclusively\u201d provided to those who supported \u201cone candidate\u201d (implying Moldova provided more opportunities to vote to the diaspora in European countries, who typically favor Sandu, than to Moldovan citizens in Russia, who may have favored her opponent, who had promised friendlier ties to Moscow). <\/p>\n
Another senior Russian senator, Andrey Klishas, took a similar line, suggesting Moldova had actively falsified the diaspora vote, which proved decisive in Sandu\u2019s victory. \u201cYou count the votes, understand how many are lacking from the \u2018correct\u2019 candidate, and bring in the necessary number from overseas polling stations,\u201d he wrote on Telegram Monday. <\/p>\n
The Kremlin has officially denied accusations by Moldova that it orchestrated and funded a widespread interference campaign ranging from disinformation and cyber attacks to simple vote-buying to try to influence not only the presidential election but a referendum on October 20 on whether to enshrine Moldova\u2019s intention to join the European Union in its constitution. That referendum secured a \u201cyes\u201d vote with a less than 1% margin. <\/p>\n
And yet Moscow had a lot to gain from installing a Russia sympathizer in Chisinau and upending Moldova\u2019s path to EU membership. <\/p>\n
Russia already has a small military presence in Transnistria, an unrecognized breakaway republic in Moldova that borders Ukraine. Geographically, that region offers a potential staging ground for Russian attacks on Ukraine. But the concern for Moldova is that Russian intentions go beyond Ukraine. <\/p>\n
In February, Transnistria appealed to Moscow for \u201cprotection\u201d from what they claimed were threats from Moldovan authorities, echoing Russian claims of a similar appeal from Ukraine\u2019s Donbas region, which Moscow used as part of its justification for its full-scale invasion in February 2022. <\/p>\n
Another region in Moldova\u2019s south, Gagauzia, is also keen to build closer ties with Moscow. Its leader, a regular visitor to Russia, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in March. <\/p>\n
In his congratulatory note to Sandu Monday, US President Joe Biden declared \u201cRussia failed\u201d in its attempt to undermine Moldova\u2019s democracy. But both the tight victory for Sandu and Moldova\u2019s electoral calendar in the year ahead offer clear incentives for Moscow to keep up the pressure. <\/p>\n
News coverage in Russia is already emphasizing the fact that Sandu narrowly lost the election within Moldova but secured victory due to an unprecedented turnout by Moldova\u2019s large expat population \u2014 more than 80% of which voted for her. <\/p>\n
In her victory speech, Sandu acknowledged the divisions in the country, promising to be \u201cthe president for all of you.\u201d <\/p>\n
She now has less than a year to address those divisions before parliamentary elections next summer, which many fear could be another target for Moscow. <\/p>\n
Lithuania\u2019s foreign ministry wrote on X Monday, \u201cWith parliamentary elections around the corner, (the) EU should do its best to help Moldova investigate all of Russia\u2019s malign interference & bring its perpetrators to justice.\u201d <\/p>\n
Recent parliamentary elections in Georgia, where the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party secured victory amid widespread reports of Russian interference, may have also given Moscow a taste of success. <\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Ukraine is breathing a sigh of relief at the results of Moldova\u2019s election. <\/p>\n
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky immediately called to congratulate Sandu, vowing to strengthen the two country\u2019s partnership. <\/p>\n
And yet, Moldova looks at Ukraine with growing trepidation. Russia is currently advancing in the east in what Ukraine\u2019s commander-in-chief described as \u201cone of the most powerful Russian offensives since the start of the war.\u201d <\/p>\n
Attacks on Odesa and Ukraine\u2019s Danube ports have already brought the war far too close for comfort for Chisinau. <\/p>\n
Overnight into Monday, as Moldova counted its final votes, Romanian fighter jets took off less than 40 miles from Moldova\u2019s southern border after Russian drones approached its airspace. If Russia\u2019s gains turn from tactical to strategic, Moldova faces a threat much bigger than election interference. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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