If his first term in the White House is any indication, President-elect Donald Trump is likely to keep the Middle East high on his agenda. <\/p>\n
During his first four years, Trump made history by selecting Saudi Arabia for his first foreign trip, attempted to broker a \u201cdeal of the century\u201d between Israelis and Palestinians, strengthened the Jewish state\u2019s regional integration, and significantly intensified pressure on Iran. <\/p>\n
But the Middle East has changed significantly since he left office in 2021, and all regional actors are keenly watching how the new president will navigate these shifts. <\/p>\n
\u201cYour historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America. This is a huge victory!\u201d Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted on X on Wednesday. <\/p>\n
Gulf Arab states also welcomed the president-elect\u2019s victory. Saudi Arabia\u2019s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman congratulated Trump, and the United Arab Emirates said: \u201cthe UAE and US are united by our enduring partnership based on shared ambitions for progress.\u201d <\/p>\n
Iran downplayed the significance of the election, saying there is \u201cno significant difference\u201d in who becomes president in the US, state media reported. Fatemeh Mohajerani, spokesperson for the government, was cited by Iranian media as saying that the \u201cgeneral policies of the US and Iran are unchanged\u201d after Wednesday\u2019s ballot. <\/p>\n
Here\u2019s how Trump\u2019s election could affect key players in the Middle East: <\/p>\n
Ending the wars in Gaza and Lebanon and integrating Israel in the Middle East are likely to be at the top of the president-elect\u2019s Middle East agenda, analysts said. <\/p>\n
\u201cNetanyahu will face a much tougher president than he is used to in the sense that I don\u2019t think that Trump would tolerate the wars in the manner that they are happening,\u201d said Mustafa Barghouti, leader of the Palestinian National Initiative, adding that for Palestinians, it won\u2019t make a major difference \u201cbecause both administrations were totally biased\u201d toward Israel. <\/p>\n
\u201cHe will say: wrap it up; I don\u2019t need this,\u201d Pinkas said, adding that Trump will likely ask the Israeli prime minister to \u201cannounce victory\u201d and then strike a deal through mediators. <\/p>\n
Throughout his campaign, Trump has not specified how he would approach the Israel-Hamas war if reelected, or how his policies would differ from predecessor Joe Biden\u2019s. In April, Trump did say that Israel needs to \u201cfinish what they started\u201d and \u201cget it over with fast,\u201d noting that it was \u201closing the PR war\u201d because of the images coming out of Gaza. <\/p>\n
Trump, Pinkas said, \u201ccouldn\u2019t care less about the Palestinian issue.\u201d During his first term, he didn\u2019t throw his weight behind the US\u2019 longstanding support for an independent Palestinian state, saying he would like the solution \u201cthat both parties like.\u201d <\/p>\n
There is fear, said Barghouti, that Trump may allow Israel to annex parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which would spell \u201cthe end of the two-state solution.\u201d <\/p>\n
During his first term, Trump took several steps in Israel\u2019s favor. In 2017, he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, upending decades of US policy and international consensus. He also recognized Israel\u2019s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria during the 1967 war. <\/p>\n
But while Trump has often claimed to be most pro-Israel president in modern history, and even touted his close and personal relationship with Netanyahu, ties between the two leaders haven\u2019t always been friendly. <\/p>\n
In 2021, when both were out of office, Trump accused Netanyahu of betrayal when the Israeli leader congratulated Biden on winning the presidency in 2020. <\/p>\n
Shortly after Hamas\u2019 October 7 attack on Israel last year, Trump criticized Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence services for being unprepared, claiming the attack would not have occurred if he was president. <\/p>\n
The accords, a set of agreements facilitated by Trump\u2019s first administration that saw Israel normalize relations with four Arab nations, put prospects of an independent Palestinian state on the back burner, he said. <\/p>\n
\u201cWhen the war will be over, you\u2019ll need a real restart in the Middle East,\u201d and Trump will be the best person to bring about a \u201cnew Middle East,\u201d Bismuth added. <\/p>\n
Nadav Shtrauchler, a political strategist who has worked closely with Netanyahu, said Trump\u2019s election sends a message to Israel\u2019s enemies in Iran. <\/p>\n
The Israeli prime minister is also likely emboldened domestically, a day after he fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant after months of clashes over domestic politics and Israel\u2019s war efforts. <\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019ll calculate his next moves maybe different from he would if Harris was elected,\u201d Shtrauchler said, adding that Trump\u2019s unpredictability could mean that there will be more pressure on Israel to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, potentially to refocus efforts at confronting Iran. <\/p>\n
The next four years could be the Islamic Republic\u2019s biggest test since its founding in 1979, with Tehran under Trump\u2019s scrutiny that would most likely lead to a return of the \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d campaign he imposed during his last presidency, which increased Iran\u2019s isolation and crippled its economy, experts say. <\/p>\n
Trump, who prides himself as a master dealmaker, failed to contain Tehran\u2019s influence in the Middle East despite withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear agreement to curtail Iran\u2019s nuclear program, reimposing sanctions on it, and even ordering the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the military commander who oversaw ties with Iran\u2019s proxies in the region. <\/p>\n
Since Trump left office in 2020, Iran has ramped up enrichment of uranium, increased its oil exports, stepped up support for regional militant groups, and has set a precedent by striking Israel in a direct attack twice. <\/p>\n
But as Israel continues to degrade Tehran\u2019s regional capabilities by striking its proxies, Iran finds itself losing its deterring powers as it faces economic turmoil and widespread internal discontent. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe Islamic Republic appears as fragile as the threats against it are formidable,\u201d said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project and senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, adding that 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has limited bandwidth to be dealing with all the crises happening at the same time. <\/p>\n
As the Middle East teeters on the brink of a wider war, with Iran threatening to respond to an Israeli attack on its territory this month, there are concerns that Trump\u2019s election may empower Netanyahu to strike Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities, something the Biden administration warned against. <\/p>\n
\u201cThere is one scenario that Trump will tell Netanyahu to finish the job before he formally takes over, that means we might see a sharp escalation in tensions in November and December \u2013 Israel trying to push its advantage to weaken Iran and its Axis of Resistance (of militant groups) before Trump comes to office\u2026 then Trump comes in and takes credit on being a peacemaker,\u201d Vaez said. <\/p>\n
That could change if the Biden administration decides to \u201cpull the plug\u201d on Israel\u2019s ability to escalate tensions in its final months in office, he said. The US has already laid the ground for that by sending a letter to Israel last month warning of repercussions if Israel does not improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza. <\/p>\n
An important factor in Iran\u2019s relationship with the next US president will be how Trump responds to recent US intelligence reports suggesting that Tehran attempted to assassinate him \u2013 allegations Iran dismissed as \u201cunsubstantiated and malicious.\u201d <\/p>\n
But there must be a clear distinction between Trump and the Trump administration, said Vaez. <\/p>\n
\u201cTrump might be attracted by the allure of outwitting the Iranians at the negotiation table because that for him would be the ultimate test of his mastery in the art of the deal,\u201d he said, adding that during his first term, he was attracted to the prospect of dealmaking with Iran. <\/p>\n
\u201cIran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!\u201d Trump wrote in a tweet in 2020. <\/p>\n
Vaez noted that a revival of Trump\u2019s \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d approach might be paired with a policy of \u201cmaximum support\u201d for Iranian people \u2013 a potential regime changing policy. This, he argued, would make it unlikely for the two countries to return to the negotiating table. <\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t think anyone in (Trump\u2019s) national security team would share the objective of reaching a mutually beneficial deal with the Iranian regime,\u201d he added. <\/p>\n
Anticipating his possible comeback, Gulf Arab states continued to engage with Trump after he left office. Analysts say that could prove fruitful for them. <\/p>\n
Relations between Saudi Arabia and the US under Trump\u2019s first term flourished. He made history by choosing Riyadh for his first foreign visit as president in 2017 and stood by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during the crisis surrounding the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi at the hands of Saudi agents in 2018, when the Saudi heir faced global isolation. <\/p>\n
\u201cGulf states place a lot of premium on the ability to work with a likeminded leader and conduct relations through interpersonal contact\u2026 It reflects the way they do business with other countries as well,\u201d said Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain. <\/p>\n
During his first term, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were engaged in wars in Yemen, and both countries\u2019 ties with Iran were at their worst in decades. <\/p>\n
But Gulf states have significantly modified their foreign policies since, opting to limit their military interventions and reach out to former foes like Iran, while diversifying alliances in an increasingly multipolar world amid skepticism over the US\u2019 role in the Middle East. <\/p>\n
\u201cWith Iran, there is a chance that Trump reverts to a maximum pressure stance and given the improved relations with Iran (Gulf states) could be subjected to greater pressure from the US to abide by the maximum pressure,\u201d Alhasan said. <\/p>\n
One challenge that emerging middle-powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE could face under Trump will be managing their closer relationship with China. Over the past years, the oil-producing states have expanded trade and technology ties with China despite competition between Washington and Beijing. <\/p>\n
Saudi Arabia and the UAE were invited to join the BRICS group of developing nations, and Saudi Arabia was granted dialogue partner status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) \u2013 a China-led Asian security and economic bloc. <\/p>\n
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have used Chinese technology for key infrastructure, and despite pledges to limit Beijing\u2019s influence on their emerging artificial intelligence sectors, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increasingly relied on Chinese expertise. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a question of whether the Trump administration will exert greater pressure on Gulf states to decouple from China in certain areas, not to mention the tariff and trade wars that are likely to be exacerbated under a Trump administration which could have an impact on (Gulf) exports as well,\u201d Alhasan said. <\/p>\n
Trump also hopes to expand Israel\u2019s integration in the Middle East but may face a challenge in Saudi Arabia\u2019s refusal to normalize relations with the Jewish state until it sees a pathway for Palestinian statehood, which Israel has refused. <\/p>\n
Qatar, one of the first nations to congratulate Trump, has become indispensable to US efforts in reaching a ceasefire in Gaza due to its relations with Hamas. Those relations may however prove to be a liability under Trump, according to Alhasan. <\/p>\n
\u201cThey\u2019re probably quite worried about what a Trump 2.0 might be,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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